PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 06 - 10 2008 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. IN GENERAL, A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOME OF TODAYS MODEL RUNS AGAIN DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CHART REPRESENTS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHTS PLACED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS BLEND CHART DEPICTS A REGION OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE ROCKIES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED ALONG MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-AIR RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EAST EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND, WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS CONDITIONS FAVOR A BROAD INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTOMATED OUTPUT FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD, AND THE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR DAYS 6-8. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST,AND THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS AND CANADIAN-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST AND FEATURE A CONTINUED PNA TYPE OF PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER AIR BLEND CHART IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE CORRESPONDING 6-10 DAY 500-HPA OUTLOOK EXCEPT FOR A WEAKER TROUGH IN THE EAST AND GREATER RIDGING INFLUENCING THE NORTHEAST. WETNESS IN THE SOUTH CONTINUES IN THIS FORECAST, AS DOES DRYNESS UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE WEST, WITH A WEAK TENDENCY FOR WARMTH TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE AUTOBLEND FROM THE UPPER AIR HEIGHT FIELD, KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE HEIGHT FIELDS, AND THE 850-HPA TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE AUTOBLEND AND THE THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. FORECASTER: LE COMTE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 17. A REVISED MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JULY WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19870625 - 19850616 - 19850611 - 19510613 - 19650610 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19870625 - 19850612 - 19650610 - 19850617 - 19510613 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 10, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$