PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 01 - 05 2008 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS... ALL GFS AND ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, A RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TO OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN THE EASTERN TROUGH RELATIVE TO THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. DUE TO BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS, THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS WERE WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CHART. THIS BLEND CHART DEPICTS A REGION OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN SIBERIA, ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, AND OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA NEAR THE TROUGH. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-AIR RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EAST COAST NEAR THE FORECAST TROUGH. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 09 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS AND CANADIAN-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE SIMILAR 500-HPA LONGWAVE FEATURES TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY OFFICIAL HEIGHT FORECAST. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN CANADA WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND RAISING HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN RELATIVE TO ITS SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY AND MAINTAINS THE WEST-CENTRAL RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. DUE TO GREATER SKILL AND CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DURING THE WEEK 2 TIME FRAME, THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS WERE LARGELY DOWNPLAYED IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND. THIS BLEND CHART GENERALLY REPRESENTS A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL 500-HPA FEATURES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL FORECASTS. THUS, THE WEEK 2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECASTS. SOME EXCEPTIONS ARE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHERE A COOLING TREND IS POSSIBLE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH OFF THE COAST. THE SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS ALSO FAVORS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FLOW FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVE POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS OFFSET BY RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS MODELS, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. FORECASTER: HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 17. A REVISED MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JULY WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19970605 - 19740624 - 19900624 - 19640708 - 19890615 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19740624 - 19900623 - 19970605 - 19590615 - 19640707 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 05, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 09, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$