PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 25 - 29 2008 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WEST COAST… A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER ALEUTIANS. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS SOLUTIONS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE THAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE ANOMALY PATTERNS ARE QUITE WEAK OVER THE CONUS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... THE SOUTHEAST AND THE ALEUTIANS... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR TEXAS… THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... THE SOUTHEAST... THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... AS WELL AS EAST PART OF ALASKA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ALEUTIANS... THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... TEXAS... THE GREAT LAKES... AND EASTERN ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... BUT A WEAK ANOMALY FIELD. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ANOMALY PATTERNS ARE STILL QUITE WEAK FOR THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE CALIFORNIA AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY... THE SOUTHEAST... THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... THE NORTHEAST... AS WELL AS EAST PART OF ALASKA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE ALEUTIANS... THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR CALIFORNIA... THE SOUTHWEST... AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S AUTO BLEND CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ESEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: HE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850625 - 19740610 - 19710613 - 19960606 - 19900623 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850625 - 19740610 - 19890627 - 19710613 - 19960606 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE N B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$