PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 23 - 27 2008 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA/EASTERN ALASKA AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TROUGHS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DEPICTED BY ALL OF TODAYS SOLUTIONS OVER THE GULF COAST OR SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN TODAYS MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL 500-HPA FEATURES WHILE THE CANDIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE REMAINDER OF TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR BOTH IN PHASING AND AMPLITUDE. DUE TO SUPERIOR SKILL SCORES DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS AND GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY... THE EUROPEAN AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE FAVORED TODAY IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND. THIS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND THE GULF COAST AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS... SOUTH COAST... AND PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE DOES NOT FAVOR THE ONSET OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON AT THIS TIME. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR THE IMMEDIATE CALIFORNIA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD CAUSE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION. MEAN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH SUGGEST WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. HOWEVER... COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ITSELF. DESCENT ON THE REARSIDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - JUL 01, 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION AND WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE WESTERN PROGRESSION OF A POTENTIAL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE PHASING OF THE OVERALL FEATURES HOWEVER DIFFER IN THEIR RESPECTIVE AMPLITUDES. THE LATEST 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN IS BY FAR THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS GENERALLY FLATTER WITH THE OVERALL FEATURES RELATIVE TO THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS (PARTICULARLY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH). DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS) AND DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CHART. THIS BLENDED HEIGHT MAP SHOWS WEAK ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN ALASKA AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION. THE WEEK 2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ESEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850624 - 19740610 - 19890626 - 19790621 - 19600603 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850624 - 19890626 - 19740609 - 19790609 - 19790621 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 27, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - JUL 01, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO N B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$