PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 10 - 14 2008 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD-SCALE FEATURES OF THE MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA. THESE SOLUTIONS PREDICT WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM KAMCHATKA AND THE ALEUTIANS TO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC, AN INLAND TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND A MODERATE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (WITH YESTERDAYS 12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTING THE STRONGEST RIDGE). IN ADDITION, THESE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO FORECAST A ZONE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ALASKA AND NORTHERN CANADA TO OFF THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES WELL SOUTH OF GREENLAND. THE SINGLE DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW SIMILAR, AND IN SOME CASES MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERNS RELATIVE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS (ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC) SHOW MODESTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS. HISTORICAL ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ALL SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE WEST, AND ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES (EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES WHERE 5-DAY MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THESE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERNS AND FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE LOCATION WHERE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE MOST LIKELY IS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CDC REFORECAST RAINFALL... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE 12 UTC GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 18 2008: FOR WEEK 2... MOST MODELS PREDICT A FLATTENING OF THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A NOTICEABLE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA SUGGESTS THAT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS COULD KEEP THAT REGION WETTER THAN WHAT MOST OF TODAY'S TOOLS ARE INDICATING. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHERN ALASKA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED IN THOSE AREAS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS, BUT OFFSET BY THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND ANALOG PRECIPITATION COUNTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19740602 - 19900608 - 19850529 - 19590601 - 19750517 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900608 - 19580608 - 19850528 - 19500612 - 19590531 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 14, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 18, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN A B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$