PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 08 - 12 2008 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD-SCALE FEATURES OF THE MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, PREDICT WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM KAMCHATKA AND THE ALEUTIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA, A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE US PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR LABRADOR. YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A NOTABLE TROUGH INFLUENCING THE BERING STRAIT REGION COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLES. THE SINGLE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS RUN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA, AND IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS DIFFERS FROM THE 0Z GFS PRIMARILY IN THAT IT ANTICIPATES A MORE ENERGETIC TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA, WITH ONLY A GENERAL WEAKNESS FORECAST IN THE HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN SOME RESPECTS TO THE LATEST 5-DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN WHICH FEATURED A TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST, ANOMALOUS RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A CANADIAN MARITIMES TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS NEW ENGLAND. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE OF COURSE IS THAT TODAY'S MODEL RUNS FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE CENTERED NOT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16 2008: FOR WEEK 2... MOST MODELS PREDICT A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WITH HEIGHTS ABOUT 150 METERS ABOVE NORMAL DEPICTED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MAPS, AND AROUND 200 METERS ABOVE NORMAL DEPICTED ON THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS. THE WEST COAST TROUGH PREDICTED DURING DAYS 6-10 UNDERGOES A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT, AND THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US, WHICH SHOULD CORRESPOND WITH A SOMEWHAT COOLER PATTERN FOR THAT AREA DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19780521 - 19580607 - 19500612 - 19530609 - 19580529 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19780521 - 19500612 - 19530609 - 19580607 - 19920612 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 12, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN N B RHODE IS B B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$