PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2008 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN THAT FEATURES A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST... A DOMINANT RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MINOR DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WOULD END THE SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SUMMER HEAT IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS MODEL HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WAS WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE PREFERRED GFS MODEL WOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE ROCKIES... PLAINS... AND MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN COASTAL CALIFORNIA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST COAST CAN EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEGINNIG OF THE PERIOD... MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT REGARDING A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE BROAD RIDGE. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING ALOFT... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. A TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2008: FOR WEEK 2... THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO THAT FORECAST DURING DAYS 6-10 WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST... A PERSISTENT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS... AND A WEAKENING TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST COMPARED TO DAYS 6-10 SUGGEST THAT THE EXPECTED HEAT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD NOT SPREAD EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. THEREFORE... NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE BUILDING 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE THERMAL GRADIENT LOCATED IN THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES... DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DURING EARLY JUNE... THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IF THE GFS MODEL RUNS VERIFY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE ALEUTIANS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950519 - 19780502 - 19800507 - 19750605 - 19980605 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950520 - 19780501 - 19690601 - 19540519 - 19750601 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B B MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$