PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 11 - 15 2008 TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE LATEST GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS WERE NOT AVAILABLE. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, AND NEAR HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXTENDING INTO WESTERN CANADA. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLFIED WITH THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN. YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL FORECAST IS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS EXCEPT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL FORECAST INDICATES MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE THE ROCKIES, AND THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, SOUTHERN TEXAS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED. HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS CAUSES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE AND OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALONG THE ALASKAN PANAHANDLE DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GOOD AGREEMNT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 66N 61W AND ON NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 40N 75W AND AT 50N 180W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 66N 61W AND ON NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 40N 75W AND AT 50N 180W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 19 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION BUT OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS QUICKER TO PROGRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SLOWER TO RAISE HEIGTHS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTONS. THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. TODAYS BLEND CHART DEPICTS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, EXCEPT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE NATION WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPEARTURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST DURING WEEK 2 AS HEIGHT SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES, THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE 0Z GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAAST, THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 73N 170W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 46N 170W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE 0Z GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 73N 170W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 46N 170W. FORECASTER: SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19730427 - 19800508 - 19950420 - 19530514 - 19540507 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19730427 - 19800508 - 19540507 - 19990508 - 19950420 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 15, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 19, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$