PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 05 - 09 2008 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, AGREEMENT AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL RUNS IS POOR. TROUGHS ARE PROGGED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE BERING SEA, THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES, AND EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, OFF THE COAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TODAYS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER AND WERE DISCOUNTED. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA, THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE NORTHEAST, AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD LEAD TO WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BERING SEA TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIKELY WILL KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A FAIRLY ZONAL 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. TROUGHS ARE DEPICTED OVER THE BERING SEA AND EAST-CENTRAL CANADA WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MODEL CONTINUITY AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS IS VERY POOR TODAY. THUS TODAYS WEEK 2 FORECAST WAS BASED ENTIRELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 500-HPA BLEND CHART SHOWS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. FOR THE MOST PART, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING WEEK 2 ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOBLEND FORECAST, KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 16. (NOTE: A REVISED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30). NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620504 - 19620410 - 19650513 - 19920513 - 19640416 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620504 - 19620410 - 19610509 - 19680510 - 19650418 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 09, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$