PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU APR 03 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 09 - 13 2008 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS... AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF... 0Z HIGH RESOLUTION GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... LEADING TO A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE WEST THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLES PREDICTS. THE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER INDICATIONS FROM THE TOOLS BASED ON THE BLEND TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AHEAD OF AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES... EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE MAIN STORM TRACK. A TROUGH FORECAST OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE... WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MODEL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17 2008: THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. MOST MODELS PREDICT A EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS ARE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REFLECTING THIS CHANGE. THE 0Z HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODEL PREDICT A SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAN THE ENSEMBLES... AND THE 06Z HIGH RESOLUTION GFS PREDICTS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD... MAKING TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. QUIET UNCERTAIN. MANY TOOLS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE RESTRICTED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BECAUSE THE ECMWF PREDICTS A DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... SO TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDER EARLY IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAN THE GFS-BASED TOOLS SUGGEST. INDICATIONS FROM BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE WEST. CONDITIONS IN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SINCE A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... DAILY GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER: UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550314 - 19550416 - 19630314 - 19670401 - 19770317 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630314 - 19550314 - 19550416 - 19810408 - 19670401 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 13, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$