PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE APR 01 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 07 - 11 2008 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MODELS AGREE ON A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ANOTHER RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA... WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES... WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SINCE MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC... WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO ITS FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ENCROACHING INTO THE WEST COAST FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE. THE LOWER AMPLITUDE GFS FORECAST ALLOWS GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW... FAVORING WET CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LOOK AT DAILY FORECASTS FROM BOTH MODELS SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY IN SHORT WAVES... SUGGESTING AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE WEST... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. A TROUGH FORECAST OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MODEL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 15 2008: THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER TODAY THAN FOR YESTERDAYS FORECAST DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HOWEVER AN ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED... MAKING THE PREDICTION OF MEAN CONDITIONS DIFFICULT. THE OVERALL PATTERN IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR 6-10 DAYS. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE BELOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FARTHER EAST IN THIS PERIOD THAN EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MAINLY BECAUSE THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS... DIMINISHING THE MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... DAILY GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER: UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630314 - 19670415 - 19810409 - 19550313 - 19550415 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19820403 - 19750402 - 19550311 - 19670311 - 19630314 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 11, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 15, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$