PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 02 - 06 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. ZONAL FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS. A TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAYS OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS, AND YESTERDAYS OPERATIONAL 12 ECMWF ARE SIMILAR TO, BUT IN GENERAL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN, THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE PLAIN, AND MOST OF EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PARTS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, PLAINS, AND MOST PARTS OF EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA, DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF ROCKIES AND PLAINS. MUCH OF ALASKA IS LIKELY TO HAVE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS GFS AND ECMWF DAILY MODEL FORECASTS ALONG WITH THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MODEL. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET, AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... DAILY GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS .. AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MODEL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 10 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE BLEND CHART SHOWS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE PLAINS AND MOST OF EASTERN CONUS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG, NEURAL NET, AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, AND KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... DAILY GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS .. AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER: HE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19560325 - 19720406 - 19690401 - 19710324 - 19540308 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19560324 - 19720407 - 19540308 - 19710325 - 19690401 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 06, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 10, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$