PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 25 - 29 2008 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND A DEEP TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MOST MODELS PREDICT A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS... HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL PREDICT A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH IN THE EAST... WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MUCH WEAKER EASTERN TROUGH. A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. DAILY MODEL RUNS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE JET WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WEAKENING AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE... AND THEN INTENSIFYING IN THE EAST. THIS SUGGESTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND ALSO IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE DAILY MODEL RUNS SUGGEST HIGHER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THAN THE TOOLS BASED ON THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATES. THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND DRY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN PACIFIC STORM TRACK. THE PRECIPITATION IS LESS CERTAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST... WHERE PRECIPITATION DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS OF SHORT-WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS EVEN BY DAY 6... AND LESS SO AS TIME PROGRESSES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MUCH OF ALASKA WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE... HOWEVER SOME TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES... BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC SPECIFICATIONS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST SPECIFICATIONS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2008: THE 8-14 DAY 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ENSEMBLE AVERAGE FORECAST FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 6-10 DAY FORECASTS. THE ECMWF IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD... HOWEVER THE CANADIAN MODEL PREDICTED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE ECMWF FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... SO WAS FAVORED IN TODAYS FORECAST BLEND FOR 8-14 DAYS. THE BLEND 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR 8-14 DAYS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN... SO THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE ANALOG PRECIPITATION TOOLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVE JET PREDICTED BY MODELS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CONUS... SO THE OFFICIAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST... AND THE AREA OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM WHAT MOST TOOLS INDICATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC REFORECAST SPECIFICATIONS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST SPECIFICATIONS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640303 - 19640308 - 19690321 - 19610303 - 19640313 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640303 - 19610303 - 19640308 - 19640313 - 19690320 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$