PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 24 - 28 2008 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PROGGED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN GREENLAND. A TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF BASED SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER, ARE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE IT CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI OR OHIO VALLEY. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA ARE GENERALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS. THUS, THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS WERE FAVORED IN TODAYS BLEND. THIS BLEND CHART SHOWS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND MOST OF ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT REGION. FURTHER UPSTREAM, THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE STATE COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MEAN STORM TRACK MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE RESULTING IN NEAR OR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL UNCERTAINTY. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO LARGE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED SOLTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET, AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM, KLEIN PROBABLITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 174E, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 144W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, NEURAL NET PROBABLITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 174E, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 144W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2008: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A SLOW PROGRESSION, BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FROM THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH BOTH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA GENERALLY FAVOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE BLEND CHART SHOWS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND OVER MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FORECAST FOR WEEK 2 ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE PROGGED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND FEATURE A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE DRYNESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FURTHER EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG, KLEIN, AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM, THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE KLEIN PROBABILITIES, TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 140W, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 171E. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, THE CDC FORECAST, TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 140W, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 171E. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640304 - 19690320 - 19610303 - 19640314 - 19640309 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640302 - 19690320 - 19640316 - 19810328 - 19630302 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 28, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$