PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 23 - 27 2008 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PROGGED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN GREENLAND, AND OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND YESTERDAYS OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATER SOLUTIONS DEPICT SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART SHOWS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE PROGGED OVER THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT REGION. FURTHER UPSTREAM, THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THAT PART OF THE STATE COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MEAN STORM TRACK MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE RESULTING IN NEAR OR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST, COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST, SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, PLAINS AND NORTHEAST. A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLORIDA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET, AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM, KLEIN PROBABLITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 60N 30W, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 51N 139W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, NEURAL NET PROBABLITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 60N 30W, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 51N 139W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 31 2008: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A SLOW PROGRESSION, BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FROM THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN FAIR AGRREMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATONAL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE BLEND CHART SHOWS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS, NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FORECAST FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE PROGGED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH DURING WEEK 2 THE DRYNESS FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXTENDS FURTHER EAST AND FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG, KLEIN, AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM, THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE KLEIN PROBABILITIES, TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 49N 140W, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 34N 112W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, THE CDC FORECAST, TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 49N 140W, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 34N 112W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640304 - 19640228 - 19780312 - 19630302 - 19690320 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890322 - 19630301 - 19780311 - 19690319 - 19590316 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 27, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 31, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$