PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 16 - 20 2008 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE MAIN DRIVING FEATURES ARE A PAIR OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDE RIDGES SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND AND OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA. THESE TWO RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND FORCE A STRONG POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA NEAR WESTERN HUDSON BAY. THIS POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THESE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL OF TODAYS MODELS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MEAN STORM TRACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULTING SURFACE FORECAST WOULD FAVOR A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN NEAR THIS STORM TRACK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THIS MEAN STORM TRACK (INCLUDING MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS). A RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SIBERIA AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD ALLOW A LOBE OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN VORTEX TO THE STATE RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST.... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES ... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 24 2008: DURING WEEK 2... MANY OF TODAYS MODELS MAINTAIN THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND EVIDENT DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AMONG THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. POSITIVE ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE... IN GENERAL... STRONGER THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LOCK THE CENTRAL CANADIAN VORTEX IN AND MAINTAIN THE COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS VORTEX ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA AS WELL. A WEAK RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN FAVORS AN OHIO VALLEY STORM TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ALSO DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS... THE AREA OF ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WAS EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE... A WEAK TROUGH OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MEAN PACIFIC STORMTRACK MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE (EXCEPT THE PANHANDLE). THIS STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS... WHILE MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG... KLEIN... AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST (NAEFS)... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940309 - 19920310 - 19790307 - 19720317 - 19590304 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940309 - 19920310 - 19790307 - 19590304 - 19720317 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 20, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B B WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 24, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS B A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$