PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 28 - MAR 03, 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE RIDGES ARE PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE BASICALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HANG BACK SOME TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA... AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME TROUGH ENERGY BEING HELD BACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN VALUE BUT REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 7... BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 10... AND BE WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DUE TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS... AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. MOST OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA WHERE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST COASTS AND FLORIDA DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON STATE ...THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO THE WEAK TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO BE BELOW MEDIAN DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST/CENTRAL CONUS UNDER THE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THAT REGION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS.. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST.... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 129W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 129W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07 2008: THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS FOR WEEK 2 INDICATE A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH... BUT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN... THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES MORE TROUGH ENERGY WILL HANG BACK OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THAT HEIGHTS WILL RISE MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS... THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ALASKA... AND THE ALEUTIANS... WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS INDICATES MORE TROUGH ENERGY HANGING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DEAMPLIFIES DURING WEEK 2 THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK IN SIZE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 38N 129W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 38N 129W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880224 - 19770218 - 19970203 - 19700219 - 19800224 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880224 - 19970202 - 19700219 - 19880305 - 19570301 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 03, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$