PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 25 - 29 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS AND GULF OF ALASKA WHILE RIDGES ARE PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS/WESTERN ALASKA. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES IN PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA... AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PREDICT HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN VALUE BUT REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 7... BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 10... AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS DUE TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS... AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA IS PROGGED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS... WHILE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY... AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST/CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THAT REGION. PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO BE BELOW MEDIAN DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED). FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST.... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 34N 121W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 36N 88W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 34N 121W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 36N 88W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 04, 2008: THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR WEEK 2 INDICATE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION... BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE... TO THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICT MORE OF A SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN... AND INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA... WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER REGIME DURING WEEK 2 AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 126W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 126W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19970222 - 19880221 - 19710208 - 19570301 - 19590304 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880220 - 19590304 - 19970222 - 19530220 - 19710208 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - 29, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 04, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$