PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 13 - 17 2008 TODAYS MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEAN 500 HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE NCEP GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PREDICTIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AGREE ON A BROAD MID-LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S., BELOW NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA EXTENDING INTO WESTERN CANADA, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE NCEP GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HIGH-RESOLUTION RUN AND THE 6Z GFS HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL, BRINGING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL HAVE BEEN GIVEN THE GREATEST WEIGHT IN TODAYS OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD. PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD WOULD FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE U.S. NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS IS LOW. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE U.S. SOUTHEAST UNDER FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN MEAN PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DUE TO AN ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK AND NORTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW MEDIAN, EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER ALASKAN PANHANDLE WHERE THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND, AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE U.S. SOUTHEAST GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODEL, TIED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS, CDC REFORECASTS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS, CDC REFORECASTS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, AND DAILY MODEL PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21 2008: THE NCEP GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE 0Z GFS HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL PREDICT A PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 6Z GFS HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A COMPROMISE WAS MADE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS IN GENERATING THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. THEREFORE, THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS REPRESENT SOME PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEEK-2, AND A LOWER PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, IN ADDITION TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWEST, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST, AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN MOST LIKELY IN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS, CDC REFORECASTS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODELS, CDC REFORECASTS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900129 - 19740129 - 19640214 - 19760217 - 19900208 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900128 - 19740129 - 19900209 - 19760217 - 19640214 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 17, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH B A ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH B N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$