PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON FEB 04 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 10 - 14 2008 TODAYS MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ARE FOR A BROAD MID-LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF CANADA, WITH A MEAN TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN CANADA FROM BAFFIN ISLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY BACK OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST AND RAISING HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS A MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE ENSEMBLES AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TODAYS OFFICIAL FORECAST HEAVILY WEIGHTS THE HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS, WHICH MAY BETTER CAPTURE THE TIMING AND PHASE. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOW EXCEPT IN ALASKA WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE U.S. SOUTHEAST UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE EXPECTED MEAN BOUNDARY BETWEEN ADVANCING WARM AIR AND COLD AIR OVER THE U.S. NORTHEAST SHOULD MEAN ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS, TIED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, CDC REFORECASTS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES, CDC REFORECASTS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18 2008: THE MODELS PREDICT A SIMILAR 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AGAIN THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODELS HAVE A NOTABLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION WAS AGAIN FAVORED, THUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN ALASKA UNDER BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE U.S. WEST, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS, AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE U.S. GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, CDC REFORECASTS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST, AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES, CDC REFORECASTS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900128 - 19690201 - 19960121 - 19560214 - 19740129 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690131 - 19900128 - 19560216 - 19960121 - 19640120 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 14, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$