PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 05 - 09 2008 TODAYS MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... A TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA... AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TODAYS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS INDICATIONS THAT MEAN TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS BUILD JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVEL EASTWARD RATHER THAN DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE MEAN BOUNDARY BETWEEN COLDER AIR IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND MILDER AIR IN THE EAST... WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE TROUGH... AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER MOST OF EASTERN ALASKA WITH SOME ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCLUATION PATTERN LATE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECAST SPECIFICATION... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECAST SPECIFICATION... THE CPC AUTO BLEND... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13 2008: THE MODELS PREDICT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIODS. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH... WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND BELOW HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADA. THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT STAYS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. UPSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS CRITICAL TO THE MEAN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS... WITH SOME TOOLS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKER TROUGH... WHILE OTHERS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES... CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER MEAN TROUGH. THE COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A WEAK MEAN TROUGH FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY... WHILE A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH FAVORS A PRECIPITATION PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PREDICTION. THE OFFICIAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. TOOLS AGREE ON ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... AND FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BALANCING THE ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY LATER ON. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECAST SPECIFICATIONS... TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS AND ANALOGS APPEAR TOO WARM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY... SO ARE NOT EMPHASIZED IN MAKING THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECAST SPECIFICATIONS AND ANALOGS TO THE BLEND. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MAKE THE FORECASTS CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520110 - 19600110 - 19520117 - 19690131 - 19900206 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520111 - 19600110 - 19520117 - 19570209 - 19900206 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 05 - 09, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$