PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 21 - 25 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH ONE LOBE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER NORTHEAST CANADA AND A SECOND LOBE OF THE TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO CALIFORNIA. RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER ALASKA. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATONAL RUNS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 7... BE WEAKLY NEGATIVE AT DAY 10... AND REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE AT DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 10 AND BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY DAY 14. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA... ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MAY LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER FLORIDA. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM COULD LEAD TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS... ALTHOUGH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND ARCTIC FRONTS COULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION NEAR THE GREAL LAKES. ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... KLEIN - NEURAL NET - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 144W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 55W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 144W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 55W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICT MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW TYPE PATTERN... WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO FASTER EJECTION OF TROUGH ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER MOST OF ALASKA EXCEPT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE... THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS DEPICTS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS AND THE TOOLS DERIVED FROM THEM. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... KLEIN - NEURAL NETWORK - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 47N 157W.. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 47N 157W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670108 - 19571229 - 19751228 - 19800117 - 19950115 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800117 - 19571229 - 19950116 - 19990116 - 19670108 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 25, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$