PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 17 - 21 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR THE NORTH POLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXTEND NORTHWARD AND DOMINATE MOST OF THE STATE OF ALASKA ALTHOUGH A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE FASTER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS OPERATONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE U.S. EXCEPT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOST OF ALASKA WHERE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TO MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BECOME WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA. THIS RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. COLDER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPEATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST ALSO SUGGEST COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT REGION. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKLEY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE TROUGH. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... KLEIN - NEURAL NET - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 144W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 92W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... TELECONNECTION ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 144W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 92W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS TROUGH ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE LINKS UP WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH WITH TROUGH ENERGY ALONG THE WEST COAST COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ESPECIALLY THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOST OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS PROG NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH ALL BUT THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS ARE FORECASTING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN TODAYS RUNS. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS AND THE TOOLS DERIVED FROM THEM. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... KLEIN - NEURAL NETWORK - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 141W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 81W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 141W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 81W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800116 - 19791222 - 19990117 - 19930122 - 19950116 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800115 - 19791222 - 19930121 - 19730119 - 19990117 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$