PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON JAN 07 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 13 - 17 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA... ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN EXTENDING TO THE BERING SEA... WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE SORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND MOST OF ALASKA. FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEN PART OF THE CONUS AND THE PANHANDLE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM MID PACIFIC COAST... THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPE... NEW ENGLAND AND THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... KLEIN - NEURAL NET - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 21 2008: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CONUS ARE WEAK AND THE CENTER OF THE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT OVER EASTERN PACIFIC IS STRONG. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND MOST OF ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... KLEIN - NEURAL NETWORK - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: HE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930119 - 19730117 - 19571218 - 19540104 - 19821221 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930119 - 19540104 - 19730116 - 19821220 - 19571218 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 17, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA B N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 21, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$