PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI JAN 04 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 10 - 14 2008 TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN VERY ENERGETIC IN RECENT WEEKS, AND SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE TROUGH PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A FEW SOLUTIONS, SUCH AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN - OPERATIONAL ECMWF - AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSIST IN KEEPING SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE MOST OTHERS INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS TROUGH. THIS LATTER POSSIBILITY IS FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND A DRIER PATTERN AS STORM ACTIVITY FOCUSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ICELAND AND THE BRITISH ISLES IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN PREDICTED BY MODELS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND THIS IMPLIES LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF RESTRUCTURING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE GENERATION OF VERY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASSES WHICH COULD PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, AND THUS BEARS WATCHING. THE CORRELATION BETWEEN TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE COMPOSITE HEIGHT ANALOG (AVERAGE OF 10 BEST HISTORICAL ANALOGS) IS 0.92 WHICH REMAINS QUITE HIGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTIES AMONG MODELS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... KLEIN - NEURAL NET - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18 2008: FOR THE WEEK 2 FORECAST PERIOD... THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BLOCK WEAKENS AND/OR RETROGRADES. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE, AS WELL AS THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, SUPPORT AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE WITH THREE MAXIMUM HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS... ONE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, ANOTHER NEAR HUDSON BAY, AND THE THIRD CENTER SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THESE THREE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A RETURN TO COLD, STORMY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AFTER THE ANTICIPATED BRIEF WARMUP IN EARLY JANUARY. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE FORECASTING AN UNUSUALLY STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE, AND PULLS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH FURTHER BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 0Z GFS ALL BUT ELIMINATES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES RIDGE BY THIS TIME. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGES THAN THE SINGLE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE PRIMARILY TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND EAST-WEST EXTENT OF CANADIAN BLOCKING AS NOTED ABOVE IN THE WEEK 2 DISCUSSION. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... KLEIN - NEURAL NETWORK - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540104 - 19821220 - 19900110 - 19860103 - 19610104 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540104 - 19571219 - 19821219 - 19760109 - 19510116 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 14, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$