PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 06 - 10 2008 TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOCUSES LARGELY ON THE INTENSITY OF LONG WAVES RATHER THAN THE POSITIONING OF LONG WAVES ACROSS THE VICINITY OF NORTH AMERICA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTS A TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN CONUS. AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF MODERATE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED NEAR 35N/160W IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH A VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. EVEN THE OFFICIAL BLEND... WHICH PROVIDES A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 7 NUMERICAL MODELS TODAY... ASSIGNS A CENTRAL VALUE OF +270 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE VERY STRONG RIDGE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST OBSERVED 500-HPA HEIGHT AND HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN SERVES AS A VERY ROUGH ANALOG TO THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY PATTERN... THOUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD, RATHER THAN THE WESTERN TROUGH AS IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THE CORRELATION BETWEEN TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE COMPOSITE HEIGHT ANALOG (AVERAGE OF 10 BEST HISTORICAL ANALOGS) IS 0.963 WHICH IS VERY HIGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 14 2008: THE MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEK 2 FORECAST PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THAT ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 6-10. HOWEVER, THE 0Z AND ESPECIALLY 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE TROUGH EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS RISING NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA - THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST - AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. IT SEEMS THAT THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS BUILDING THE HEIGHTS TOO QUICKLY OVER THIS REGION, GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PROG, IN ADDITION TO CONTINUITY ISSUES WITH THE PRIOR 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND ... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640108 - 19890109 - 19750108 - 19881221 - 19731227 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890110 - 19640108 - 19750107 - 19881221 - 19731227 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 10, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 14, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$