PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 03 - 07 2008 TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN PREDICTING A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD AND REPLACING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. TODAYS RUNS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL PREDOMINATELY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES... RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE EAST OF... AND INCLUDING THE ROCKIES EXCEPT NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST TOOLS INDICATE THAT WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S... ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ALASKAN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER A DEEP TROUGH EXCEPT ALONG THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG PACIFIC JET IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST... ESPECIALLY NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHERE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED BY MANY OF THE GFS MEMBERS WITHIN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE OVER NORTH AMERICA BUILDS EASTWARD... THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC JET WILL FIND ITS WAY EASTWARD INCREASES... INCREASING THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE STORM TRACK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH... AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 11 2008: THE MODELS PREDICTION OF THE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EXPECTED 6 - 10 DAY MEAN AT HIGH LATITUDES... WHILE THE LONG WAVES OVER THE MID-LATITUDES ARE PREDICTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES LONGITUDE EASTWARD OF THEIR 6-10 DAY MEAN POSITIONS. THIS FLOW PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CONUS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND. MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND BRINGS WITH IT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A STORM TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ENHANCING PRECIPITATION IN THOSE REGIONS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN DUE TO AN ENHANCED MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET. ALASKAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 80 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS...AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODELS. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890110 - 19640107 - 19531208 - 19731226 - 19981208 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19531207 - 19731226 - 19640107 - 19981208 - 19571225 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 03 - 07, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 11, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$