PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 31, 2007 - JAN 04, 2008 TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MOST MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH TO BE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.S... ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIABLITY ON ITS INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS THAT HOLD THIS TROUGH BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... AND THESE HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TOOLS BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SPECIFICATIONS ARE NOTABLY WARMER THAN TOOLS BASED ON LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMPERATURES... AND A LOOK AT THE DAILY MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE CALIBRATED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL PREDICTIONS... SO TODAYS TEMPERATURES ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE NAEFS TEMPERATURES. ALASKAN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER A DEEP TROUGH. THE STRONG PACIFIC JET IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE CHANCES FOR WET CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN WEST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ARE DUE TO SOME INDICATIONS ON DAILY GFS SOLUTIONS OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF LACK OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER TOOLS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH SOME REVISIONS BASED ON CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 08 2008: THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT THAT 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN MAINLAND. MOST OF THE CONUS IS UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE WEST. THIS FAVORS MILD CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS AND A CONTINUATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL... MAINLY DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIRECT THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... INCREASING CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THOSE REGIONS. ZONAL FLOW GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CONUS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE CHANCES OF SHORT WAVE INTENSIFICATION INTO THE WEAK LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND... INCREASING THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS...AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODELS. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19731226 - 19571225 - 19941216 - 19741215 - 19521223 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19571225 - 19941215 - 19750105 - 19531207 - 19511204 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2007 - JAN 04, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N N NEVADA B B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 08, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$