PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE DEC 04 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 10 - 14 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS... EASTERN ALASKA...AND MOST OF CANADA. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREAS OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THOSE REGIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA AND OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OR ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED FOR THOSE AREAS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST FOR THAT REGION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND HEIGHT FIELD... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 40N 155W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS ON THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 40N 155W... AND INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 12 - 18 2007: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROADLY CYCLONIC ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO BE SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE SOUTH. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL... THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTS LOWER HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE ALSO LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING WEEK 2 AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND FIELD... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 41N 161W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 41N 161W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19771120 - 19581207 - 19851123 - 19801202 - 19951208 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19771120 - 19581207 - 19851122 - 19591113 - 19721204 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 10 - 14, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 12 - 18, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B A W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B N RHODE IS B B PENN N A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$