PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 02 - 06 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE CONUS... ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS... WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEST OF CONUS....EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE PROGGED OVER WEST OF CONUS WHILE THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE THE WEAKEST WITH THIS FEATURE. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND OVER MOST OF ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA... AND MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS GFS-BASED FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST TO NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE RIDGE . BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND HEIGHT FIELD. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS ON THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 10 2007: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND MOST OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND FIELD. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: HE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19861210 - 19761128 - 19641118 - 19561121 - 19601207 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19861208 - 19601207 - 19761128 - 19561121 - 19641118 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 02 - 06, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 10, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$