PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE CONUS... ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS... WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST NEAR CUBA AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA....EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE PROGGED OVER CUBA WHILE THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE THE WEAKEST WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL THE OPERATIONAL PROGS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOST OF ALASKA EXCEPT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA.... MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS... AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS GFS-BASED FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO AT DAY 7... REMAIN NEAR ZERO AT DAY 10... AND BE WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 7... BECOME NEGATIVE BY DAY 10... AND REMAIN NEGATIVE AT DAY 14... ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS QUITE LARGE AT DAY 14. THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE EXPECTED NEAR CUBA SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AND THE ALASKAN PANAHANDLE WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED... WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST... DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED THERE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 72N 158W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS ON THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 72N 158W... AND INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND RISE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIIONS THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN AND QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE AREA OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AS THE EXPECTED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MODERATES TO NEAR NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO THE PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF COAST SHOULD SEE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS DURING WEEK 2 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... TELECONNECTIONS ON NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 41N 161W AND 46N 80W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 76N 179W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 41N 161W AND 46N 80W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 76N 179W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19601206 - 19561128 - 19881206 - 19561122 - 19861204 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19951120 - 19561129 - 19991115 - 19631205 - 19961112 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$