PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 28 - DEC 02, 2007 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY... OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS... WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST NEAR CUBA AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA....EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES... AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF INDICATES HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOST OF ALASKA EXCEPT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA.... THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO AT DAY 7... REMAIN NEAR ZERO AT DAY 10... AND BE WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 7... BECOME NEGATIVE BY DAY 10... AND REMAIN NEGATIVE AT DAY 14... ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS QUITE LARGE AT DAY 14. THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION. FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE EXPECTED NEAR CUBA SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE... WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AND EAST/CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS ON THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND...AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 06, 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS IS SLOWER TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE PAACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE AREA OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE EXPECTED AREA OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY SHRINKS IN SIZE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO THE PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SEE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19991115 - 19951120 - 19631205 - 19881205 - 19561129 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19991115 - 19951120 - 19621105 - 19651203 - 19541105 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 06, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA A B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA A A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$