PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON NOV 19 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 25 - 29 2007 TODAYS GFS-BASED AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS. RIDGES ARE PROGGED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN ALASKA. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA... THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOMEWHAT POORER CONTINUITY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIVE AT DAY 7...TREND TOWARDS ZERO AT DAY 10... AND BE WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 7... TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 10 AND BE NEGATIVE BY DAY 14... ALTHOUGH SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS QUITE LARGE BY DAY 14. THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE NATION. FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPEARTURES FOR MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE... WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 59N 86W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 138W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE CDC REFORECASTS... ANALOGS ON THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 27 - DEC 03, 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT PROGGED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO ITS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS LEAVE MORE TROUGH ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION LEAVES MORE TROUGH ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR CALIFORNIA. TODAYS 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO LEAVES MORE TROUGH ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC COMPARED TO ITS SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... KLEIN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 76W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 138W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 76W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 138W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19651203 - 19761101 - 19631030 - 19801107 - 19751114 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19751114 - 19651202 - 19761101 - 19631029 - 19601119 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 25 - 29, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 27 - DEC 03, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$