PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 30 - NOV 03, 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY THAN YESTERDAYS SUITE OF SOLUTIONS AND APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. HOWEVER... ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH. AREAS OF MODEL AGREEMENT INCLUDES THE DEPICTION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FORECAST CUT-OFF LOW IS REFLECTED BY MOST OF TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS TO BE LOCATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. TODAYS OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL RUNS ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IN PLACING THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE THE LAST TWO OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HANG THE TROUGH BACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE... THE CANADIAN MODEL... AND THE ECMWF MODEL REPRESENT A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND WERE FAVORED TODAY. THE RESULTING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. IN GENERAL... COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH... WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEAN 500-HPA JET. DOWNSTREAM... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES. AN EXCEPTION IS FLORIDA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONT AND INFLUXES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVER ALASKA... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS OFF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS OFF THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 01 - 07 2007: FOR WEEK TWO... THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND 0Z GFS DEPICT MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REPRESENTED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND WAS FAVORED TODAY. THE RESULTING 500-HPA OFFICIAL HEIGHT PATTERN DEPICTS WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND GREAT LAKES AND WEAK RIDGING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION NEAR THE TROUGH WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEAN 500-HPA JET. FOR ALASKA... NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS OFF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS OFF THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19951013 - 19671025 - 19541014 - 19671010 - 19691008 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19541013 - 19671025 - 19671010 - 19951013 - 19691008 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 03, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N B RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 01 - 07, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$