PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 25 - 29 2007 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN EXPECTED OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ON DAYS 6 AND 7... THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP ANOMALOUS CUT-OFF LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS INDICATE A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z ECMWF INDICATES A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF INDIVIDUAL 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED ANYWHERE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BUT A LARGE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS EXHIBITED THE BEST CONTINUITY WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF LOW. HOWEVER... THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND DEPICTS A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME... AN ANOMALOUS CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS UNKNOWN. SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DAMP OUT THE EXPECTED CUT-OFF LOW... THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE CONSTRUCTED USING THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS EXCLUSIVELY. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD INDICATES A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS OVER THE WEST COAST AND OHIO VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR ALASKA. ACROSS THE CONUS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NORTHERN ROCKIES... PLAINS... AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED CUT-OFF LOW... SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST AND INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... NORTHERN PLAINS... AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... ANALOGS OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOG OF THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION BASED ON 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - NOV 02, 2007: BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK 2 THE FORECAST DILEMMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN. HOWEVER... A SLOW EJECTION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WOULD LEAD TO LARGE FORECAST ERRORS FOR THE EAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A PAIR OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS NEAR ICELAND AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. TELECONNECTIONS ON BOTH OF THE ANOMALY CENTERS FAVOR A TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD INDICATES BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA. AS A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WEST OCAST... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON DAYS 6 AND 7... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST... LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SPLIT-FLOW LONGWAVE PATTERN ENTERING NORTH AMERICA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURES... ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOGS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19841010 - 19621006 - 19751016 - 19641102 - 19620930 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19841010 - 19621006 - 19620930 - 19751016 - 19681019 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 25 - 29, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - NOV 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$