PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 18 - 22 2007 TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS. STRONG TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST OF GREENLAND AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND MOST OF ALASKA... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST... NORTH/CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CONUS. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INDICATE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION AND MAINTAINS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE GFS-BASED FORECASTS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE LATEST 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE MUCH QUICKER TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 7... TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 10... AND REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 10 AND BE MODERATELY NEGATIVE BY DAY 14. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL CONUS IN COMBINATION WITH A FLOW PATTERN THAT FAVORS PACIFIC MARITIME AIR MASSES SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR THE WEST COAST WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC... AND FLORIDA WHERE FALLING HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT AREA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE. EASTERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MUCH OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE FORECAST OF ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... ANALOG... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 137W... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... INSPECTION OF MODEL DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FIELDS... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 137W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 20 - 26 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS... A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... WHILE A RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE WELL WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS PROGS ARE ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH JETSTREAM ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC AND IN THIS REGARD ARE A BETTER FIT TO THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE EAST COAST... OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND MOST OF ALASKA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COMPARED TO THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH REPSECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY... WHILE THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS EXPECTED FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH DURING WEEK 2 DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... ANALOG... KLEIN... AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES.... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 45N 136W... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 45N 136W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19581023 - 19811006 - 19810924 - 19701026 - 19681011 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19581022 - 19851022 - 19701025 - 19711020 - 19681012 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 18 - 22, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 20 - 26, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A B NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$