PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 17 - 21 2007 TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST OF GREENLAND... OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TROUGH AND GREAT LAKES RIDGE. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND ALASKA... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CONUS. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE LATEST 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICT SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS COMPARED TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 7... TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 10 AND REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 7 BUT REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL CONUS IN COMBINATION WITH A FLOW PATTERN THAT FAVORS PACIFIC MARITIME AIR MASSES SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. THE WEST COAST MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC. EASTERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THAT REGION. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... ANALOG... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 54N 78W... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 137W... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... INSPECTION OF MODEL DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FIELDS... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 54N 78W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 137W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 19 - 25 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS... A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... WHILE A RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE WELL WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH JETSTREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS CLOSES OFF A TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS CIRCULATION FEATURE AND CLOSES OFF A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS... OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND MUCH OF ALASKA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH REPSECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE JETSTREAM ENERGY FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS EXPECTED FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH DURING WEEK 2 DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE PLAINS AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE WEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... ANALOG... KLEIN... AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES.... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 46N 136W... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 46N 136W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19851021 - 19581022 - 19711020 - 19681012 - 19701025 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19711020 - 19851022 - 19681013 - 19711001 - 19731007 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 21, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 19 - 25, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$