PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 15 - 19 2007 TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND WEST COASTS... AND ALASKA... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES... AND THE OPERATIONAL FORECASTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGLY POSITIVE BY DAY 7... REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 10 AND TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 7 BUT REMAIN VERY WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN COMBINATION WITH A FLOW PATTERN THAT FAVORS PACIFIC MARITIME AIR MASSES SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. COASTAL CALIFORNIA MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC. EASTERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THAT REGION. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... ANALOG... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 82W... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 138W... AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... INSPECTION OF MODEL DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FIELDS... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 82W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 138W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 23 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN INDICATED BY THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH DURING WEEK 2 A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FLOW REGIME IS PROGGED. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE WELL WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN IS SIMILAR TO... BUT MORE AMPLIFED THAN... THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UNREALISTIC LOOKING CLOSED-OFF TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND IS DISCOUNTED. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL... NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS... AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND ALL OF ALASKA. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS EXPECTED FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE WEEK 2 ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY DISPLACED A LITTLE EASTWARD. IN ADDITION THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION TO NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS THE 500-HPA FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ZONAL DURING THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... ANALOG... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES.... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 77W... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGAIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 134W... AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 52N 77W... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGAIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 50N 134W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19711019 - 19851022 - 19821002 - 19710930 - 19681014 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19711019 - 19851022 - 19821002 - 19681014 - 19611009 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 23, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$