PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 08 - 12 2007 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA... AND A RIDGE IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE GFS 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT PATTERN... WHILE THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG RIDGE OVER CANADA AND POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE GREAT BASIN... CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD DUE TO A PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH... ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WHILE FOR ALASKA... BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 16 2007: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST... AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH... WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... CENTRAL PLAINS... THE SOUTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR ALASKA... BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. FORECASTER: HE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19560929 - 19611009 - 19561013 - 19821002 - 19711018 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19560929 - 19611009 - 19561013 - 19821002 - 19681013 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 14, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$