PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 25 - 29 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN WHICH FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE GFS-BASED... 12Z ECMWF... AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A WEAKER MEAN 500-HPA RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS A NOTABLE TREND IN THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER (GREATER THAN 120 METERS) AT 45N 170W REMAINS THE DOMINANT 500-HPA FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. TELECONNECTIONS ON THIS FEATURE SUPPORT A MILD TEMPERATURE PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH THE GREATEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXPECTED IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR ALASKA... TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD INDICATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE CPC AUTO AND CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NORTHERN ROCKIES... AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... GULF COAST... AND FLORIDA. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD... THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS SHOW CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER... INDIVIDUAL 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW. THEREFORE... THE CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ITS ASSOICATED RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL PRECPITATION FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE... A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET SHOULD LEAD TO ABVOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 45N 170W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM VARIOUS MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2007: DURING WEEK 2 ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A LONGWAVE PATTERN SIMILAR TO DAYS 6-10 WITH GREATER AMPLIFICATION TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ACCORDING TO THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST WHILE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. DUE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST... A LARGER AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. A SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC STORMS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS... SOUTH ALASKA... AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610925 - 19610920 - 19550929 - 19710922 - 19930916 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610924 - 19640926 - 19710922 - 19980924 - 19550929 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$