PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 02 - 06 2007 TODAYS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. MOST MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ANOMALY PATTERN IS GENERALLY WEAK OVER MOST OF THE CONUS... HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN. THE 0Z GFS... 6Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TO NEW ENGLAND... WHILE MOST ENSEMBLE AVERAGES BASED ON LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS PREDICTS 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND WAS FAVORED IN TODAYS BLEND... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD. IF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM IN MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S WHERE TOOLS BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MOSTLY INDICATE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TOOLS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TEXAS... WITH MANY TOOLS EXTENDING THE CHANCES OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF TO FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 500-HPA. THE STORM TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WET CONDITIONS TO THE ALUETIANS... ALASKAS SOUTHERN COAST AND THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CPC 2 METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES... NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 10 2007: TODAYS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT THAT THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL... HOWEVER THE CONFLICT BETWEEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND ENSEMBLES DESCRIBED IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY DISCUSSION CONTINUES TO APPEAR IN WEEK TWO. BECAUSE THE ADVANTAGE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIMINISHES WITH TIME... THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAVORED IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY BLEND... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOWERING 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. TOOLS CONTINUE TO PREDICT ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS... TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH THE PLAINS AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO A LACK OF CONSENSUS AMONG TOOLS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... ALTHOUGH MOST TOOLS KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND A GENERALLY WEAK ANOMALY PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE BLEND. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CPC 2 METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES... NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680906 - 19720905 - 19800824 - 19590815 - 19560902 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680906 - 19590815 - 19560901 - 19620823 - 19800822 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 06, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 10, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$