PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A LOW AMPLITUDE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS... A LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.... AND A PAIR OF POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTERS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF BARROW. THE MAIN POINTS OF DISAGREEMENT ARE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION WHILE SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL HIGH RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF MEMBERS BRING A TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SUPPRESS THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT... THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SOLUTIONS WERE FAVORED DUE TO THEIR HIGHER HISTORICAL SKILL HOWEVER... DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS... FORECAST PROBABILITIES FOR THE REGION WERE KEPT FAIRLY LOW. THIS CONSENSUS 500-HPA FORECAST KEEPS THE MEAN 500-HPA JET FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST CONUS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH... FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA... THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE MEAN 500-HPA JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER... RESULTING IN WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY THE FORECAST CLOSED LOW FORECAST NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PANHANDLE WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS SURFACE TOOLS FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CPC 2 METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES... NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2007: FOR WEEK 2... TODAYS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK... THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... UNLIKE THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME... MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SUGGEST THAT A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL CONUS DUE... IN PART... TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THESE REGIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH... DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STABLE CANADIAN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION. DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FAR WESTERN CONUS AS THE MEAN STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LIKEWISE...MOST OF INTERIOR ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MEAN 500-HPA JET WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR THE PANHANDLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST MEAN STORM TRACK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE FORECAST PATTERN CHANGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CPC 2 METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES... NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE SYSTEM TEMPERATURES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620820 - 19750820 - 19880819 - 19680813 - 19800813 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620817 - 19680812 - 19750818 - 19770824 - 19530801 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$