PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 22 - 26 2007 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NORTH AMERICAN 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE CANADIAN AND EC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE ZONAL THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE RESULTING TEMPERATURE FIELDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR OVERALL... BUT THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE COOLER FOR THE NORTHEAST US. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE US. THE RESULTING ANOMALY FIELDS FROM BOTH MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE... WITH THE ECMWF HAVING VERY WEAK ANOMALIES. NEGATIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PRESENT OVER THE ROCKIES ...WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE NORTHEAST US. A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AGAIN... THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FEATURES MUCH WEAKER RIDGING THAN DO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM... A BROAD TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BE WELL OFF OF THE EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS... USING THE ECMWF TO MODERATE THE EASTERN RIDGE FROM THE GFS FORECASTS. WHAT BOTH MODELS AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE. THE WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE IN A WARM PATTERN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS... THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS FEATURE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. THE MODELS AND TOOLS DIVERGE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN US... BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE RATHER DRY. HOWEVER... THE GREATEST VARIANCE FROM TOOL TO TOOL OCCURS FOR THE NORTHEAST PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE SOUTHWEST US IS ALSO FORECAST TO RECEIVE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. ONE IMPORTANT VARIABLE IN THIS PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HURRICANE DEAN. THE TIME OF THE STORM'S PROJECTED LANDFALL IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ITS PATH VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN TO RUN... ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TOWARDS A LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN COAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS/TOOLS AND A WEAK ANOMALY FIELD. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... ANALONG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 24 - 30 2007: THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NATURE OF THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL... AND HAVE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE EASTERN US. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN GOOD. THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN ALASKA... WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A LOW-AMPLITUDE... NEAR-ZONAL RIDGE IS FORECAST FOR THE US EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR THE BULK OF ALASKA. THE CENTRAL US IS MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN US AND THE SOUTHWEST US ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND ALASKA IS LIKELY TO BE DRIER THAN THE MEDIAN... WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS... AND ALSO FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: ARMSTRONG NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850829 - 19560729 - 19780823 - 19950824 - 19570809 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850829 - 19950827 - 19780823 - 19570808 - 19560729 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 22 - 26, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 24 - 30, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$