PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 14 - 18 2007 TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PREDICTED LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA... THE EAST PACIFIC... AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHIFT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEST FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION WITH A 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE 0Z GFS... 6Z GFS... AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR POSITIONS FOR THE FOLLOWING 500-HPA FEATURES: AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH... A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS... AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER... THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLITUDE FOR THOSE 500-HPA FEATURES. THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND ITS ASSOCIATED EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS LIFT THE TROUGH AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST... WHILE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS MAINTAIN A TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WOULD ALLOW COLD FRONTS FROM EASTERN CANADA TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER 48 AND RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD FOR 500-HPA INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS LIMITED TO NEW ENGLAND... THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH THE GREATEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST FOR NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST OF ALASKA CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGING ALOFT. THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY INITIATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND RESULT IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... GREAT LAKES... AND NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE... MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 22 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA WILL DEAMPLIFY. THE MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OF 60 METERS LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REMAINS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART MAINTAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EXPECTED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR ALASKA. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW... THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. MANY OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS INDICATE A DRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY... SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG WITH EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR FLORIDA... THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE... THE ALEUTIANS... SOUTH ALASKA... AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520724 - 19780819 - 19990719 - 19590818 - 19520812 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520724 - 19870810 - 19880802 - 19870720 - 19990718 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 14 - 18, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS B A PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 22, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$