PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 13 - 17 2007 TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY REGARDING THE PREDICTED LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE EAST PACIFIC. THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW AT 500 H-PA IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ITS EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS REMAIN THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED 500 H-PA LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND IS DISCOUNTED AS AN OUTLIER. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE. THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE 0Z GFS REVEAL THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z GFS IS LIKELY TOO AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS... ALONG WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 6Z GFS AGREE THAT A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD FOR 500 H-PA INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS LIMITED TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE. 500 H-PA HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 5940 METERS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 H-PA HEIGHT CHART... TODAYS PROG INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MORE OF THE EAST. THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE PAST WEEK... TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. REMNANT LOWS FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO IMPROVED CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA WILL DEAMPLIFY. COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST FOR DAYS 6-10 AND 8-14 SHOW A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC... A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... AND FLAT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 H-PA HEIGHT CHART MAINTAINS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES ARE MUCH SMALLER THAN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE EXPECTED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW... THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 H-PA HEIGHT CHART INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND NEAR AVERAGE MONSOON CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE... STRONG WESTERLIES ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD PROMOTE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN WETTER THAN NORMAL. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520724 - 19970812 - 19990718 - 19520810 - 19870810 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19870810 - 19870720 - 19520723 - 19520809 - 19850812 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 17, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$