PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 08 - 12 2007 TODAYS MODEL HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A TROUGH NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM... MOST MODELS ANTICIPATE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS REGION... ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS PROGS DEPICT IT WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. TO THE NORTH... A TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER THE BAFFIN ISLAND AREA OF FAR EASTERN CANADA. A TYPHOON CURRENTLY AFFECTING JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS ALASKA. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... HEAVY PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE HEIGHT PROGS. HOWEVER... MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD EXPERIENCE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS PROG FIELDS OF 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS ADVECTION PATTERNS AS WELL AS MEAN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FEATURES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE DETERMINISTIC 6Z GFS PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 16 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN IN THE REGION OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RETROGRESSION DURING WEEK 2 LEADING TO A BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THE RESULT OF THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN IS THAT ANOMALOUS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... WHILE WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO ONLY FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA / D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530713 - 19840730 - 19830729 - 19760724 - 19980810 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830801 - 19530713 - 19840730 - 19980810 - 19850804 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 12, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N B NEVADA B B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 16, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA N B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$