PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 07 - 11 2007 TODAYS MODEL HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE, BRINGING IT INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSTREAM, MOST MODELS ANTICIPATE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AS WELL AS A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. TO THE NORTH, THE HUDSON BAY LOW IS INDICATED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/BAFFIN ISLAND AREA OF FAR EASTERN CANADA. RELATIVELY FAST, LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA. SOME MODEL RUNS AGREE ON A TROUGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA, BUT THE DOWNWIND IMPLICATIONS FOR ALASKA ARE UNCLEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE FAST CHANGING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE THE BEST BET FOR THE 49TH STATE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A TENDENCY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE HEIGHT PROGS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD EXPERIENCE DRY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS PROG FIELDS OF 1000-500 MB THICKNESS ADVECTION PATTERNS AS WELL AS MEAN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FEATURES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE DETERMINISTIC 6Z GFS PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LOCATIONS OF THE LONG WAVES IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DIFFER FROM THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN IN THAT THE MAIN LONG WAVES WILL UNDERGO RETROGRESSION DURING WEEK 2 BY PERHAPS FIVE OR TEN DEGREES LONGITUDE. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND DRYNESS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO MOSTLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. IT IS ALSO BASED ON THE LATEST (12 UTC) OPERATIONAL GFS PRECIPITATION AND STORM TRACKS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830801 - 19840730 - 19840809 - 19530713 - 19620812 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830801 - 19980810 - 19530713 - 19640717 - 19620812 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA N N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$