PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 25 - 29 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA... A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING INTO CANADA... AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR... AND THE ANOMALY PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL... AND THAT 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL BE SIGNFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVENCES. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE NATION... WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH PREDICTED OVER TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFIED CONTINENTAL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST... TEXAS... AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAKES IT FAVORABLE FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF COAST AND PARTS OF FLORIDA. THE TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST SHOULD FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND... MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN THERE... ALTHOUGH MOST TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - AUG 02, 2007: THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES OF THE FLOW AND THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING ONLY MINOR CHANGES BETWEEN THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIODS. BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540705 - 19910724 - 19750711 - 19940726 - 19530709 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940726 - 19530709 - 19750711 - 19540705 - 19910724 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 25 - 29, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - AUG 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$