PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 22 - 26 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST... AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 6Z GFS HAVE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH IS EVIDENT DURING THE PAST THREE DAYS. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ALSO FAVOR A DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z ECMWF SHOWING A CUT-OFF LOW AT 500-HPA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STABLE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ALSO FAVOR A MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MEANWHILE... ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z GFS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 594 DM WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH THE GREATEST ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS EXPECTED HEIGHT PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERTURES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... NORTHERN PLAINS... AND CORN BELT. THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO RECORD HEAT FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC... GULF COAST REGION... THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ALASKAN PANHANDLE... AND NORTHWEST ALASKA. THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... GREAT LAKES... AND CORN BELT. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND COASTAL WASHINGTON. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE ALEUTIANS WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 30 2007: THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THEREFORE... THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE OUTLOOKS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A DOMINANT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND... HEAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... NORTHERN PLAINS... AND CORN BELT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWEST... GULF COAST... AND FLORIDA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST... SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF THE WEST. MANY PRECIPITATION TOOLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... GREAT LAKES... AND PARTS OF THE CORN BELT. AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530708 - 19940725 - 19750710 - 19500629 - 19910723 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530708 - 19940725 - 19600702 - 19620723 - 19500629 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 26, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 30, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$