PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 15 - 19 2007 TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST... A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST... AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 0Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW THE GREATEST AMPLITUDE. THE SPREAD AMONG THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS RELATIVELY SMALL... RAISING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT THE UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR JULY WILL DEVELOP BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD... THE DAILY MODELS PREDICT THAT THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN. ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. TODAYS BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD FEATURES A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE EXPECTED HEIGHT FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA AND THE WEST WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FLORIDA. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS PREDICT 500-HPA HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 594 DM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. DESPITE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS... THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS DIFFER ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE PRESENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE RIDGE FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. IF THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE... A MAJORITY OF TOOLS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR EXCESSIVELY WET AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS ALASKA... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. MUCH OF ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND VARIOUS TEMPERATURE TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 23 2007: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE... THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 6Z GFS MAINTAIN A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z GFS... AND THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW MORE PRONOUNCED DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH PRESENT DURING DAYS 6-10. THE CDC HEIGHT FIELD SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD HAS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... TENNESSEE VALLEY... AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATUES MAY CONTINUE FOR TEXAS. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR ALASKA. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION TOOLS DIFFER GREATLY IN THE EAST... BUT THE NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST ALSO SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN ALASKA WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SYSTEM... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19600719 - 19990710 - 19590621 - 19500701 - 19840715 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19600719 - 19590621 - 19990710 - 19500701 - 19910702 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 23, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$